Forerunner Ventures’ Endgame: As Consumer IPOs Stall, Alternative Exits Take Center Stage
Forerunner Ventures’ portfolio—Warby Parker, Bonobos, Glossier—has avoided traditional IPOs. With the market frozen, what exit strategies remain for consumer startups?
Forerunner Ventures’ Portfolio at a Crossroads: The New Rules of Startup Exits
Thirteen years after pioneering the “digitally native vertical brand” revolution, Forerunner Ventures faces a sobering reality: None of its marquee investments—Warby Parker, Bonobos, Glossier—have achieved traditional IPOs.
As the IPO market remains frozen and consumer startups struggle with valuation resets, Forerunner’s portfolio highlights the new playbook for startup exits in 2024:
✔ SPACs (Warby Parker’s path)
✔ Strategic acquisitions (Bonobos → Walmart)
✔ Private limbo (Glossier’s indefinite hold)
✔ Secondary sales (Employee liquidity moves)
Forerunner’s Exit Report Card: What Happened?
| Company | Exit Strategy | Outcome | Valuation Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warby Parker | SPAC (2021) | 6B→1.5B market cap today | Down 75% post-SPAC |
| Bonobos | Acquisition (2017) | Walmart bought for $310M | Below peak $700M |
| Glossier | Still private | Last raised at $1.8B (2022) | Downround likely |
The Pattern: None matched early hype. SPACs and trade sales delivered partial wins, but no home runs.
Why Traditional IPOs Are Off the Table
- Market Conditions
- Consumer tech stocks (Allbirds, FIGS) trade 80-90% below peaks
- Investors now demand profitability over growth—a problem for DNVBs
- Forerunner’s Portfolio Challenges
- High burn rates: Many DTC brands relied on cheap customer acquisition (pre-iOS 14.5)
- Inventory risks: Physical products = heavier ops than SaaS
- The SPAC Hangover
- Warby’s post-SPAC plunge scared others (see: Rent the Runway’s 97% drop)
What Exit Options Remain?
1. The “Profitability Pivot” (Then IPO)
- See: Olaplex’s path (profitable before IPO)
- Problem: Requires painful cuts—Glossier already laid off 30%
2. Strategic Acquisitions
- Best case: A Nike or L’Oréal buys for tech/talent (like Walmart-Bonobos)
- Hurdle: Few buyers at 2021 valuations
3. Secondary Market Lifelines
- Employees/funds sell shares privately (e.g., via Forge Global)
- Reality: Often at 50-70% discounts
4. The “Zombie” Route
- Raise small extension rounds, hope for market recovery
- Risks: Investor fatigue, talent exodus
The Bigger Picture: What This Means for Venture Capital
Forerunner’s dilemma reflects systemic shifts:
🔹 Consumer VC isn’t dead—but the rules changed
🔹 “Growth at all costs” killed more startups than recessions
🔹 Future funds may demand earlier paths to profitability
Kirsten Green’s Next Move: The Forerunner founder recently raised a $1B fund—will she double down or pivot strategies?
Final Thoughts: A Wake-Up Call for DTC
Forerunner’s portfolio was once the gold standard of consumer VC. Its struggles reveal:
✅ SPACs weren’t the savior many hoped
✅ Acquisitions work—but rarely at dream valuations
✅ The next wave must balance growth and unit economics
Will Glossier ever go public? Can Warby Parker recover? The answers will define consumer tech’s next decade.
What’s your take—are these just delayed successes, or signs of a broken model? Let us know in the comments!
