Why Nest Co-Founder Matt Rogers Is Doubling Down on HVAC With Quilt

Nest co-founder Matt Rogers explains why he’s still betting on smart HVAC with his new startup, Quilt—and how it’s different this time.

Matt Rogers’ Next Act: Why He’s Betting Big on Smarter HVAC With Quilt

A decade after Nest reinvented home thermostats, co-founder Matt Rogers is back with Quilt—a new startup tackling HVAC again, but this time with heat pumps, AI, and a climate-first mission.

In an exclusive interview, Rogers explained why he’s returning to the space, how Quilt differs from Nest, and why home heating is the next frontier in the fight against climate change.

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Why HVAC Still Needs Disrupting

Rogers argues that despite Nest’s success, home heating remains inefficient and fossil-fuel dependent:

✔ 30% of U.S. energy use comes from heating/cooling homes
✔ 85% of HVAC systems are still oversized and poorly installed
✔ Heat pumps (Quilt’s focus) are 3-4x more efficient—but adoption is lagging

“Nest made thermostats smart, but we didn’t fix the underlying system,” Rogers admits. Quilt aims to solve that.

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How Quilt Is Different From Nest

Feature	Nest (2011)	Quilt (2024)
Focus	Smart thermostats	Full HVAC systems (heat pumps + AI)
Energy Source	Works with gas/electric	All-electric, heat pump-only
Installation	DIY-friendly	White-glove professional install
AI Use	Learning schedules	Real-time load balancing + diagnostics

Key Innovation: Quilt’s systems self-optimize using sensors and predictive algorithms—like a Tesla for your home’s air.

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The Big Challenge: Breaking HVAC’s Inertia

Rogers acknowledges hurdles Nest didn’t face:

1. Upfront Costs
   • Heat pumps cost $10K-$20K installed vs. $250 for a Nest
   • Quilt plans financing options (likely subscription model)
2. Contractor Resistance
   • Most HVAC installers prefer selling familiar gas systems
   • Quilt is building its own certified installer network
3. Consumer Awareness
   • Only 16% of Americans understand heat pump benefits
   • The startup’s branding leans hard on design + luxury appeal

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The Climate Tech Angle

This isn’t just about comfort—Rogers sees Quilt as critical decarbonization infrastructure:

• 1 ton of CO2 saved annually per converted home
• IRA tax credits cover 30% of costs (until 2032)
• California’s gas furnace ban (2029) creates urgency

“Electrification is inevitable. We’re making it effortless,” says Rogers.

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Early Signs of Traction

Though still in stealth, Quilt has:
✅ $33M in funding (from Lowercarbon, Incite, others)
✅ Pilot programs with eco-conscious homeowners
✅ Partnerships with green builders

Rumor: Apple-esque design aesthetics (no surprise—Rogers was an early iPod engineer).

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What’s Next?

2024-25 will test whether Rogers can:

1. Make heat pumps aspirational (not just utilitarian)
2. Scale installations without Nest’s big-box retail advantage
3. Outmaneuver giants like Carrier and Trane

Bet to Watch: Will Quilt adopt Nest’s “data monetization” playbook (e.g., demand response programs with utilities)?

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The Bottom Line

Rogers’ return to HVAC isn’t nostalgia—it’s a recognition that the next 10% of efficiency gains require reinventing the hardware itself. If Quilt succeeds, it could do for heat pumps what Nest did for thermostats: make them must-have tech.

Do you think Quilt can overcome HVAC’s inertia? Or is this market too entrenched? Discuss below!

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